The research deskBeyond the
Beyond the
finish line.
A closer look at what could happen next. Independent simulation reports, with the evidence and assumptions in view.
Grid Pace Lab
The report archive
02Published reportsThe report archive
From the research desk
Newest data cutoff firstPublished research
Austin · 25 October 2026
Highest win probability · main forecast3 million races · 22 drivers · 9 scenario views
39.22%VerstappenPre-weekend model estimate
VER39.22%
LEC16.40%
RUS13.95%
2026 United States Grand PrixSimulation reportEnglish
web edition
web edition
Simulation report20 Oct 2026
Austin 2026: the race forecast
Three million simulated races. Twenty-two drivers. Explore the United States Grand Prix forecast, all result-order probabilities and nine views of the assumptions behind them.
Method
Monte Carlo · equal mixture of 2-, 4- and 8-race form models
15 min readRead the report
2026 season forecast
The most likely finishModel estimates · season-end position
P235.04%Combined forecast
P235.04%
P323.31%
P419.35%
Max VerstappenRed Bull RacingEnglishweb edition
Simulation report16 Oct 2026
Verstappen 2026: the fight for second
Three million simulated seasons. Six races remaining. Explore where Max could finish, why second leads the distribution, and what the title long shot really means.
Method
Monte Carlo · equal mixture of three form models
12 min readRead the report